A Look around the Corner – Four Likely Changes in the Market Place

Recessions come and go – and always has. Accordingrnto US statistics your average recession lasts one year and an economic growthrnperiod last 5 years. But beware, this is statistics, it is an average. It doesrnnot say anything about the current crisis. By the way, is this a financialrncrisis or a finance people´s crisis followed by an economic one? Well, we dornlearn that a growing GDP is the normal thing.   

When the recession has ended, what to expect?rnWill it be business as usual or will we face new problems and opportunities?rnLet us take a look around the corner!

1. Media

Let us assume that the print newspaper isrngradually disappearing, gradually. The cost of printing and distributing it isrntoo high. Today, we get our news free on the laptop and we are used to get itrnfree. Can an electronic newspaper survive by ads alone? not likely. I guess therne-reader is the long term solution. You can charge money for subscription andrnthe newspaper can even give away e-readers – if you subscribe for one year orrnso. And you can buy books and magazines to download as well. This is arnchallenge for marketing people. Not only because you have to change to a newrnmedia but also because the technology will allow personalised news.rnSegmentation will be the key word. As a consumer you do not buy a newspaper,rnbut only the news and analysis that are of interest to you. The e-reader canrntalk to you as well – it has a friendly voice – which is nice when driving. Asrnyou will understand, I am a believer in the future of e-readers, notrnnecessarily the Kindle from Amazon, but some portable device, even a mobilernphone.

2. People Power

Our societies have traditionally been top-downrnones. The politicians make laws and regulations and citizens obey.rnManufacturers make products and consumers buy them. This is going to change –rnthe 2.0 society is taking over. It is interactive, the consumers will want tornhave a say. President Obama is the first 2.0 president. He created a dialoguernwith voters and it worked. He got millions of “ambassadors” to take part in hisrncampaign. The forthcoming elections in Europe will be decided in the same way.rnIt is a two-way street.

Likewise in business. The company, any medium orrnbig company must create a dialogue with consumers. Social media is onernopportunity; an interactive web site and events are other possibilities. Therncompany becomes part of the society; they have to join the dialogue. PowerfulrnNon Governmental Organisations, NGO´s, will appeal to emotions and change thernlandscape of values. And it is a global phenomenon. The less democraticrncountries outside Europe will face the same problem, people power. The mobilernphone and the internet are strong democratic tools. It started with the Frenchrnrevolution in 1789. The idea at that time was responsible government, electedrnby the people. Parliaments represented the voters. The 2.0 revolution is movingrnpower away from parliaments and into social movements. Those that best canrnappeal to values and feelings will win. Hopefully for me as an elderly person,rnit will happen slowly, on order to make it possible for me to adapt. Thernunderlying trend to explain this is a declining belief in authority. More andrnmore people believe in their own ability to make decisions.

3. The End of Materialism

Don´t worry, we will still buy stuff. Consumersrnwill buy for non-materialistic reasons, however. The products around you, yourrnclothing, your home, your car, tells your story. It answers the question: Whornam I? In the old days a bicycle was a bicycle – a means of transportation. Notrntoday, it could be a mountain bike, a racing cycle, a retro bike – it mustrnreflect your lifestyle. More and more products and services will becomernlifestyle products. A t-shirt is your signal – what is written on it or what kindrnof little animal is pictured? It is not the t-shirt; it is the signal you wishrnto send that matters. Does this mean that we will become more brand conscious?rnNo, not really – individualism entails a personalised signal, you are a memberrnof a group, a segment, but at the same time you wish to express how you arerndifferent. The word to remember is: Mass Customisation. Shopping today is notrnneed-driven any more, it reflects our hunter-gatherer instincts. Discountrnproducts? Yes, most people do not consider all products as lifestylernproducts.

The success of a country or a government isrnstill measured by the Gross Domestic Product, GDP. New research tells us,rnhowever, that above a certain level more money will not make you happier. Mostrnpeople in Germany and Scandinavia has reached that point. The old story is thusrnoutdated: we make money, work harder to buy stuff – because it will make usrnhappier. It does not work that way any more; it is a zero-sum game. When yournbuy a bigger car, your neighbour becomes less happy, until he or she buys anrneven bigger one. And so on. The solution? Measure the right thing, create a nationalrnhappiness index. The idea (according to my conversations with Danishrnpoliticians) is still too new to them, but the bottle neck is always on top –rnon bottles and in society. Happiness is not a scarce commodity – you can evenrnshare it.  Its time will come. 

4. The Era of the Storyteller

Lifestyle products and entertainment products isrnfor our heart, not our mind. It is an emotional thing. It has to be marketedrnwith a compelling story – in ads or embedded in the product itself. Again, thisrnis a challenge. Most lifestyle products have stories about belonging to this orrnthat group. Most are weak, however. They lack drama. The few golden principlesrnof storytelling are too often forgotten:

a. A story must be believed in – strongly. (Dornyou really believe strongly in the products you bring to the market?)

b. it must have a conflict – to be solved – justrnlike any good movie (bring in the bad guy)

c. It must be concrete, about actions – thisrnperson did this or that

Is it easy or difficult? It depends on the firstrnprinciple – if you really believe in something then you can sell anything – inrnpolitics and in the market place.

Let us say welcome to the future – if you are arnlittle afraid, them remember that it comes one day at a time.

rj@dreamcompany.dk